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Working Paper n.º 58/2019
When The Lenders Leave Town: Partisanship, Electoral Calculations and Vested Interests as Determinants of Policy Reversals in Spain and Portugal

14 | Fevereiro | 2019

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Catherine Moury, IPRI-NOVA

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Daniel Cardoso, IPRI-NOVA

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Angie Gago, Université de Lausanne

PALAVRAS-CHAVE: European Union; Portugal; reversals; troika
DOI:  https://doi.org/10.23906/wp58/2019

Resumo

To what extent are reforms made under external constraint maintained in the medium term? Under which conditions do decisions-makers reverse those, or alternatively keep them? This articles addresses these questions in Spain and Portugal. It shows that since 2014, 44% of the most important measures adopted under conditionality in both countries have been reverted. Nevertheless, the bulk (90%) of structural reforms enacted during the crisis remained. We also show that the left reverted more than the right; and that the preferences of veto players matter. Using crisp-set qualitative-comparative analysis (QCA), we find that within less than five years all temporary reforms were changed back, and that if businessor employers lobby for a reversal (and the costs to society are not salient), reversals will occur. Another finding is that most reversals are those with the largest electoral payoffs, as (cyclical) reversals always occur when the benefits are visible and concentrated rather than diffuse.

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Working Paper n.º 57/2018
Migration crisis in the EU: developing a framework for analysis of national security and defence strategies

14 | Maio | 2018

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.João Estevens, IPRI-NOVA

PALAVRAS-CHAVE: migration-security nexus; migration crisis; security and defence strategies; EUGS.
DOI:  https://doi.org/10.23906/wp57/2018

Resumo

This paper addresses migration-security nexus in the EU by assessing Member States’ national security and defence strategies as well as the 2016 EUGS in a time of migration crisis. After developing and applying a framework for analysis derived from the existing literature, it is clear the existing differences among Member States strategic cultures and approaches to migration issues. The idea of ‘EU’rope without internal borders is at stake as Schengen is under serious attack due to increasing Eurocentrism and growing extreme right-wing populism. The solution seems to depend on two critical uncertainties: the evolution of political and social instability in the North Africa and the Middle East, and the future of the EU itself. Nonetheless, the future of the EU is also at stake as it will depend on how the EU is dealing with current migration crisis, which is one of the most important geopolitical challenges today. The results enlighten a securitization of migration centred on the nation-state and national security rather than on people and human security.


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Working Paper n.º 56/2017
Labour Market Reforms and the Crisis in Portugal: No change, U-Turn or New Departure?

13 | Março | 2017

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Daniel Cardoso, IPRI-NOVA

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.Rui Branco, IPRI-NOVA

PALAVRAS-CHAVE: labour market reforms; Portugal; crisis; troika
DOI: 
https://doi.org/10.23906/wp56/2017

Resumo

Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data, this paper studies labour market reforms in Portugal from 2000 to 2013. The paper examines how the main dimensions of labour market legislation (employment protection, security in unemployment, collective bargaining and activation policies) evolved in the period and specifically assesses the impact of reforms implemented during the sovereign debt crisis. We aim to show if, and how, such regulatory changes operated a remaking of the socioeconomic power balance in industrial relations.

The paper shows that the changes introduced during the troika years were qualitatively different relative to past reforms. Even if these reforms built on previous trends, we highlight three path-shifting changes. First, there was a sizeable reduction of security in employment and in unemployment for workers with permanent contracts (insiders). Second, at the same time, a significant decentralization of wage bargaining shifted the balance of power towards employers, while a move from joint to statutory regulation, stalled social concertation. Third, both these trends were not offset by any significant unemployment compensation strategy or activation effort targeted at outsiders: no recalibration occurred in a dualised labour market. Overall, this shift in the power balance between insiders, outsider and employers configures a new departure for Portuguese labour market relations. A worsened situation for insiders and outsiders indicates that there was both a flexibilization across the board and that segmentation endured, but now at a lower level of security. In conclusion, the austerity-driven reforms brought the Portuguese labour market to a liberalised dualisation.

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